A new study, entitled World bandwidth growth over the next decade – is it viable? (PDF) has predicted that we are on our way to experiencing a global bandwidth famine.
The reason for the famine is the rate at which the world is using the available bandwidth compared to the the rate at which new bandwidth is coming online. Ultimately, right now we are using what’s available faster than we can increase the limit.
The study was written by David Payne, Institute of Advanced Telecommunications at Swansea University, UK and was sponsored by CIP Technologies. David Smith of CIP commented:
The Global Bandwidth Study demonstrates that current telecom networks will be unable to cope with the scaling demands for bandwidth. A step-change in technology is needed that can not only deliver this bandwidth demand at economic cost but also significantly reduce the amount of energy required to power and cool it … The current technology will be physically too large and energy-hungry to deliver the levels of bandwidth growth demanded by users. CIP believes that photonic integration will be increasingly the way forward to provide the step change cost reduction per unit bandwidth necessary to economically meet projected demand.
Based on Payne’s research and possible scenarios he believes the use of bandwidth could grow between 40 and 100 times today’s levels by 2018. He also believes current architectures, if expanded as they are today, would not be able to meet that demand. The study is also backed up by similar findings in studies carried out by Cisco.
The solution according to Payne is large scale deployment of low-cost optical technology alongside simplifying the networks by removing, “as many expensive electronic nodes and terminations as possible“. The question is will the companies involved with the infrastructure make the investment and upgrades in time, or at all?
Read more at ITWire.com
Matthew’s Opinion
It’s clear to see that web users are using a lot more bandwidth due to the growing number of rich media sites out there. ISPs are already complaining about coping with demand when services like the BBC iPlayer get released. The question is whose responsibility it is to improve the infrastructure?
In reality this is a widespread, global issue and it requires everyone to invest and upgrade. Ultimately it will be the broadband customers who vote with their feet, moving ISPs if the service becomes poor. In turn the ISPs need to push for, and implement upgrades to cope with demand. If they value their business they will have to react and plan for the future.
A few years ago there was a large pool of bandwidth that could easily cope with the demands from users on the web. It looks like the spare capacity has been used up very quickly and going forward it’s unclear if networks will be able to cope. Hopefully, they will and things won’t come to a screeching halt.